It?s the old glass half full glass half empty question, the optimists are confident that we are ?though the worst of it? and many agree that the worst is now over. There could still be mixed forecasts and ups and downs on house price growth but many analysts within the property sector agree that there will be no more catastrophic falls. The pessimists are crying ?suckers rally?, they say we are entering a double dip and we are now reaching the top of that middle point.
Whatever anyone says the average house price has increased by near two thousand pounds per month in the last few months. This mean many home owners are enjoying capital appreciation that could well be doubling their income. Some figures suggest that from peak to trough prices fell by 22.5% this combined with a lack of average growth for the two years of say 5% could mean that in ?real terms?, prices have fallen by a total of 32.5%. If you consider that prices may have fallen in real terms by just short of one third, it looks increasingly like the asset bubble that was residential and commercial property has deflated back to a sensible level. The other consideration is rental yields, there are now reasonable areas in the north of England and the midlands where you could quite easily buy a terrace property for as little as ?50,000 and get a 9% rental yield. This means that rents alone will support the bottom end prices in these areas.
House prices bouncing back or do we face the double dip.
November 12, 2009
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